The UAE off-plan market has been running a structural deficiency for two decades: construction duration risk is entirely unpriced. The Off-Plan Default Swap resolves it.
Read analysis →Capital expenditures for fiscal 2024 were $6,866 million, compared to $3,299 million for fiscal 2023 and $1,347 million for fiscal 2022. The increase reflects continued investment in cloud data centers and network infrastructure.
In fiscal 2024, we completed a review of the estimated useful lives of certain server equipment and extended the estimated useful life from four years to five years. This change in accounting estimate increased operating income by approximately $1.2 billion.
As of May 31, 2024, we had data center lease commitments of approximately $261 billion that had not yet commenced and are not reflected on our consolidated balance sheet. These commitments have initial terms of 10 to 19 years.
Free cash flow for fiscal 2024 was $(394) million, compared to $13,757 million for fiscal 2021.
Independent equity, macro, and forensic research. No house view. No affiliation.
Active work in progress. No publication dates given.
Dubai’s off-plan market is pricing delivery risk like it doesn’t exist , OPDS turns that gap into a tradeable credit instrument.
The UAE off-plan market has been running a structural deficiency for two decades: construction duration risk is entirely unpriced. The Off-Plan Default Swap resolves it.
Hormuz closure probability non-trivial. Iran's leverage is asymmetric — the cost of disruption falls harder on Asian importers than on the US, which is a structural shift from 2012.
Saudi and UAE reserve buffers are substantial. The fiscal break-evens matter more than spot prices — both are currently above threshold for a sustained conflict scenario.
Re-acceleration in energy prices would directly constrain Fed easing capacity. Oil above $100 changes the inflation calculus materially. Monitoring.
This is not a war for oil. It is a contest over who absorbs the risk premium on Gulf order, and eight rational actors are each playing a different financial game.
The first real stress in private credit is showing up in the wrapper around the loans: gated redemptions, discounts to NAV, selective markdowns, and tighter bank financing all point to a repricing year rather than a default year.
Capex went from $2.1B to $21.2B in four years. FCF turned negative. ROIC compressed from 35% to 13%. And $261 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments have not yet hit the balance sheet. The cloud story is real. The valuation assumes it works perfectly.
At ~$140, the market appears to be pricing EOG's base case. The key driver from here is scenario weighting around the conflict-up oil path.
The UAE off-plan market has been running a structural deficiency for two decades: construction duration risk is entirely unpriced. The Off-Plan Default Swap resolves it.
Read analysis →Capital expenditures for fiscal 2024 were $6,866 million, compared to $3,299 million for fiscal 2023 and $1,347 million for fiscal 2022. The increase reflects continued investment in cloud data centers and network infrastructure.
In fiscal 2024, we completed a review of the estimated useful lives of certain server equipment and extended the estimated useful life from four years to five years. This change in accounting estimate increased operating income by approximately $1.2 billion.
As of May 31, 2024, we had data center lease commitments of approximately $261 billion that had not yet commenced and are not reflected on our consolidated balance sheet. These commitments have initial terms of 10 to 19 years.
Free cash flow for fiscal 2024 was $(394) million, compared to $13,757 million for fiscal 2021.
Independent equity, macro, and forensic research. No house view. No affiliation.
Active work in progress. No publication dates given.
Dubai’s off-plan market is pricing delivery risk like it doesn’t exist , OPDS turns that gap into a tradeable credit instrument.
The UAE off-plan market has been running a structural deficiency for two decades: construction duration risk is entirely unpriced. The Off-Plan Default Swap resolves it.
Hormuz closure probability non-trivial. Iran's leverage is asymmetric — the cost of disruption falls harder on Asian importers than on the US, which is a structural shift from 2012.
Saudi and UAE reserve buffers are substantial. The fiscal break-evens matter more than spot prices — both are currently above threshold for a sustained conflict scenario.
Re-acceleration in energy prices would directly constrain Fed easing capacity. Oil above $100 changes the inflation calculus materially. Monitoring.
This is not a war for oil. It is a contest over who absorbs the risk premium on Gulf order, and eight rational actors are each playing a different financial game.
The first real stress in private credit is showing up in the wrapper around the loans: gated redemptions, discounts to NAV, selective markdowns, and tighter bank financing all point to a repricing year rather than a default year.
Capex went from $2.1B to $21.2B in four years. FCF turned negative. ROIC compressed from 35% to 13%. And $261 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments have not yet hit the balance sheet. The cloud story is real. The valuation assumes it works perfectly.
At ~$140, the market appears to be pricing EOG's base case. The key driver from here is scenario weighting around the conflict-up oil path.