Research.
Published equity, macro, and market notes in one running archive.
Structuring the Off-Plan Default Swaps (OPDS): A Quantitative Framework for Hedging Construction Risk in Dubai
The UAE off-plan market has been running a structural deficiency for two decades: construction duration risk is entirely unpriced. The Off-Plan Default Swap resolves it.
The Eight-Body Problem: The Complete Financial Architecture of the 2026 Iran War
This is not a war for oil. It is a contest over who absorbs the risk premium on Gulf order, and eight rational actors are each playing a different financial game.
Private Credit's First Crack Is the Wrapper
The first real stress in private credit is showing up in the wrapper around the loans: gated redemptions, discounts to NAV, selective markdowns, and tighter bank financing all point to a repricing year rather than a default year.
ReportOracle: When Software Margins Meet Infrastructure Capex
Capex went from $2.1B to $21.2B in four years. FCF turned negative. ROIC compressed from 35% to 13%. And $261 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments have not yet hit the balance sheet. The cloud story is real. The valuation assumes it works perfectly.
Oracle Forensic ModelEOG Resources: The Base Case Is Priced In
At ~$140, the market appears to be pricing EOG's base case. The key driver from here is scenario weighting around the conflict-up oil path.
EOG DCF Model