10-K forensics
Footnotes reveal what management hides — from lease obligations buried in note 7 to silent liability transfers.
Accounting signal detection
Useful-life extension tricks, off-balance-sheet exposure, and goodwill that should have been impaired three quarters ago.
FCF vs net income divergence
The tell of every blow-up. When accruals widen and cash conversion deteriorates, the earnings story ends.
Thesis with evidence
Every call backed by primary source — original filings, not consensus summaries or sell-side recycling.
Published Research — Equity
Oracle: When Software Margins Meet Infrastructure Capex
Capex went from $2.1B to $21.2B in four years. FCF turned negative. ROIC compressed from 35% to 13%. And $261 billion in off-balance-sheet lease commitments have not yet hit the balance sheet. The cloud story is real. The valuation assumes it works perfectly.
EOG Resources: The Base Case Is Priced In
At ~$140, the market appears to be pricing EOG's base case. The key driver from here is scenario weighting around the conflict-up oil path.